Disclosure: These are my personal investment research notes and opinions shared with friends and family. This is not financial advice.
2026 Convictions
Most of these positions are near 52-week lows as of May 2026. Research compiled from earnings calls, investor presentations, and podcasts.
GitLab
Allocation
1.75% (planned max ~2.25%)
GitLab is widely considered the second-best code repository platform after GitHub, but its real differentiation is being a more end-to-end DevSecOps platform covering the full software development lifecycle — from code repository to CI/CD to deployment.
Key Highlights
- ›Probably the leader in end-to-end SDLC platforms (code repository → code deployment).
- ›Widely adopted across enterprises — ~50% of Fortune 100 companies use GitLab.
- ›Many scaling companies use GitLab for CI/CD maturity compared to GitHub Actions.
- ›Trading near 52-week lows as of May 9, 2026.
- ›Zero debt with enterprise value lower than market cap.
- ›Strong free cash flow trend with improving leverage over time.
- ›Revenue growth remains strong (~20%+ in FY2026).
- ›P/S ratio < 5 — attractive for a high-growth SaaS company.
- ›Dollar-based net retention (DBNRR): 118% — a key metric to monitor.
- ›Leads 4 out of 6 categories in Gartner 2025 evaluations.
- ›GitLab Dedicated for U.S. government and regulated environments.
- ›$400M share buyback authorization signals management confidence.
Key Risks
- ⚠FY2027 guidance reduced to 15–17% growth from ~26% prior growth.
- ⚠Declining DBNRR (152% → 130% → 118%) is a major signal to watch closely.
UiPath
Allocation
0.84% (planned max ~1%)
UiPath is a leader in the RPA (Robotic Process Automation) segment and is well-positioned in the emerging world of agentic AI workflows. As agentic AI expands, many workflows will still require deterministic decision-making — RPA tools like UiPath are likely to complement AI systems rather than be replaced by them.
Key Highlights
- ›Trading near 52-week lows as of May 9, 2026.
- ›Now a profitable business.
- ›Strong financial position with no major balance sheet concerns.
- ›ARR growth: ~11%.
- ›Dollar-based net retention: ~107%.
- ›Customer expansion in both $100K+ and $1M+ ARR segments.
- ›Strong enterprise use cases in compliance-heavy automation domains.
- ›Buybacks from 2023–2026 add investor confidence.
Key Risks
- ⚠Competition risk: software vendors bundling automation into core offerings.
- ⚠DBNRR declined: 140% (historical highs) → 118% (Q1 2025) → 107% (Q4 FY2026).
- ⚠Revenue growth slowing from ~11% to ~9%.
Klarna
Allocation
1.3% current (planned max ~2%)
Klarna is a leader in the BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) segment with strong consumer fintech positioning. A founder-led company with strong growth across both consumers and merchants.
Key Highlights
- ›Trading near 52-week lows as of May 9, 2026.
- ›Founder-led company.
- ›App ranked ~#13 in the App Store — strong engagement signal.
- ›Expanding financial services footprint, including banking initiatives (UK approved, U.S. in progress).
- ›Enterprise value significantly lower than market cap.
- ›Attractive valuation: P/S ratio ~1.53.
- ›Consumer growth: 28% YoY (Q4 2025).
- ›Merchant growth: 42% YoY.
- ›GMV growth: 32% — total GMV ~$38.7B.
- ›Revenue growth: 38%.
- ›4.2M active card users and ~$13B consumer deposits.
- ›Efficient operations with AI-driven headcount optimization.
Key Risks
- ⚠Not yet profitable.
- ⚠Accounting complexity due to forward-looking loss recognition across quarters.
- ⚠Requires significant capital at this GMV scale.
- ⚠Naked call position adds upside risk — monitor closely.
Toast
Allocation
Planning up to ~1% (with 0.5% buffer for dips)
Toast is a leading restaurant POS (Point of Sale) platform with strong penetration in the hospitality industry. A founder-led company expanding beyond restaurants into grocery and adjacent verticals.
Key Highlights
- ›Trading near 52-week lows as of May 9, 2026.
- ›Founder-led company — App ranked #16 in the App Store.
- ›Revenue growth ~26% YoY.
- ›Location growth ~22% YoY — 171,000 locations.
- ›P/S ratio ~2.36 with attractive forward P/E and PEG.
- ›Profitable business with a strong financial position.
- ›Toast Capital provides lending solutions with innovative repayment directly from daily transaction flows.
- ›AI marketing agent reportedly improves customer revenue by ~8%.
- ›Growth outlook: ~20% range.
- ›~$613M total share repurchases since inception ($400M + $200M additional authorization).
Key Risks
- ⚠Competitive restaurant tech market.
- ⚠Macro sensitivity in hospitality industry.
Atlassian
Allocation
3.91% (down ~20% on core; recurring $5/day until breakeven)
Atlassian is a leader in project management and collaboration software with strong enterprise adoption. Founder-led, with flagship products Jira and Confluence used across ~85% of Fortune 500 companies.
Key Highlights
- ›Recently rebounded from 52-week lows.
- ›Attractive valuation metrics (forward P/E, PEG, and P/S).
- ›~85% of Fortune 500 use Atlassian tools.
- ›Strong net retention: ~120%.
- ›Revenue growth expected ~20% YoY.
- ›Jira Service Management gaining traction — competing with ServiceNow in ITSM.
- ›AI initiative "Rovo" gaining traction (~75% Fortune 500 usage).
- ›Cloud migration expected to unlock cross-sell and upsell opportunities.
- ›Strong buyback activity: $150M (2023), $395M (2024), $779M (2025).
Key Risks
- ⚠Not yet consistently profitable due to acquisitions and high R&D (~50% of revenue).
- ⚠Data center / regulatory environment complexity for certain enterprise customers.
Uber
Allocation
Planned up to ~4% via recurring investment (currently targeting ~3.5–4%)
Uber is a diversified mobility and delivery platform transitioning into a broader ecosystem company. Strong leadership and execution, trading near 52-week lows.
Key Highlights
- ›Near 52-week lows as of writing.
- ›P/S ratio: ~2.96.
- ›Strong turnaround in free cash flow.
- ›Uber Eats is becoming as large as the rides business.
- ›Expanding into grocery, retail, and hotels (Expedia partnership).
- ›Progress in autonomous vehicle initiatives.
- ›Currently trading like a growth + value hybrid.
Key Risks
- ⚠PEG varies depending on GAAP vs non-GAAP earnings adjustments.
Microsoft
Allocation
Planned ~4%
Every body knows MSFT
Key Highlights
- ›Sticky Product
- ›27% stake in openAI
- ›4-8% reported stake in Anthropic
Key Risks
- ⚠capex spending
Other Convictions (Broader Thesis)
AI Adoption in Traditional Industries
Software currently represents ~10–15% of total addressable market spending. As AI becomes widespread, industries like Manufacturing, Food, Automotive, and Pharma will increasingly adopt AI — often relying on consulting companies due to a lack of in-house AI talent.
Consulting Exposure
Accenture
Premium Consulting
- ›Strong fundamentals.
- ›Forward P/E: 14.79 · PEG: 1.27 · P/S: 1.57
- ›Strong buybacks and dividends (~4% of market cap).
Cognizant
Value Consulting
- ›Cheaper than Accenture with lower brand premium.
- ›Strong buybacks (~4% of market cap).
Infosys
Global IT Services
- ›Comparable to Accenture in capability.
- ›Slight premium valuation due to brand strength.
HubSpot
- ›Recently turned profitable.
- ›Significant gap between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings — analysts primarily use non-GAAP for valuation.
- ›Stock-based compensation is being managed more carefully.
- ›As the GAAP/non-GAAP gap narrows: FCF per share improves, dilution reduces, EV/FCF improves, and valuation strengthens.
Portfolio Allocation
| Position | Ticker | Current / Planned |
|---|---|---|
| GitLab | GTLB | 1.75% (max ~2.25%) |
| UiPath | PATH | 0.84% (max ~1%) |
| Klarna | KLAR | 1.3% (max ~2%) — naked call |
| Atlassian | TEAM | 3.91% (recurring $5/day) |
| Toast | TOST | Planning ~1% |
| Uber | UBER | Planned ~4% |
| Microsoft | MSFT | Planned ~4% |